Should we fear an imminent nuclear war?

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The biggest story nobody is talking about… and it doesn’t involve Trump

We can all breathe a sigh of relief after Pakistan agreed to free an Indian pilot it had shot down over its territory last week. It appears that the crisis is deescalating, for now. But this deescalation is far from permanent, and we can expect more tensions in the future.

How did this happen? We certainly don’t hear much about India and Pakistan in the American media. But in fact, it is the most likely flashpoint at which nuclear war could break out. Even if a nuclear war between Pakistan and India were limited to their territory, it is safe to assume that there would be global consequences.

The immediate crisis was precipitated by a terror attack in Indian-controlled Kashmir that killed 40 soldiers. India blamed Pakistan for the attack, a charge the Pakistanis denied. With the Indian prime minister Narendra Modi facing re-election, he was intent on displaying foreign policy strength. As a result, he ordered Indian jets to attack alleged military targets in Pakistani territory.

Pakistan, of course, had to respond militarily, resulting in the Indian pilot flying his plane into Pakistani territory, at which point the Pakistanis shot him down.

At first, the pilot was attacked by civilians on the ground. Once he was taken into custody by the Pakistani military, it appears he was treated well.

The event turned into a public relations bonanza for Pakistan. But the public relations masks a deeply unstable situation. The region of Kashmir located between India and Pakistan has been contested since the two countries’ founding. Indeed, it is one of the few places on earth where troops are authorized to fire on each other on sight. Another such location is the North Korean border.

Two nations at war

Unlike in North Korea, however, where nuclear weapons are a recent development, both India and Pakistan have had nuclear weapons since at least the early 1970s. According to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), each country has in the vicinity of 140 nuclear warheads with the ability to deliver these weapons with long-range missiles, bombers…