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Joe Biden’s early lead in North Carolina is meaningless
Be careful about early poll results
The news this week was dominated by results from a Fox News poll showing Biden with a commanding lead of 21 points over second place Bernie Sanders and third place Kamala Harris in South Carolina. The poll, conducted from July 7 to July 10, measured voter sentiment in this first test of the candidates’ strength in the South, and, as Chris Wallace pointed out, it was conducted entirely after the conclusion of the first set of debates where Biden’s performance was roundly criticized.
Certainly, it was an impressive poll result, especially given Biden’s commanding lead among African-Americans even over Kamala Harris and Cory Booker. As a result of this poll and others showing Biden’s current polling strength, as well as his endorsements and fundraising, he certainly deserves to be included among the first tier of Democratic candidates for President.
The question is, will it hold up? Preliminary indications are that the answer is no. Biden’s early polling lead is driven entirely by name identification.
Consider the following. Very little campaigning has occurred thus far in South Carolina. Indeed, Elizabeth Warren has…
