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Are the Democrats or the Republicans getting a post-Kavanaugh bounce?
It’s still early, but Democrats have reason to be hopeful
Both parties predicted at the end of the battle over Brett Kavanaugh’s nomination for the Supreme Court that the brutal fight would benefit them. As of right now, it seems like the Republican expectations are falling flat.
Consider the recent polling. The vote on Kavanaugh’s nomination was held October 6, although it became clear he was going to win on October 5. As a result, the key is to look at polls conducted after the 5th. Since then, Yougov ran a poll that gave the Democrats an 8 point advantage, while Morning Consult gave them a 13 point advantage, and the well-respected CNN/SSRS poll run almost entirely after Kavanaugh’s nomination favors the Democrats by 12 points. Indeed, polling aggregator FiveThirtyEight currently has the Democrats up by 8.2 points overall on the national generic ballot.
Republicans have argued that anger among their party faithful over the way Kavanaugh was treated would motivate them to go to the polls. This point is critical since midterm elections are won by the party who shows up to vote. Up until now, there has been little doubt that the Democrats are motivated, and Republicans demoralized. Even more than the generic ballot this level of…
